Graham Coffey is the publisher and founder of DawgsCentral.com. His work centers around deep dive statistical and film analysis in addition to gathering recruiting and team intel. He lives in the Four Corners, residing in SW Colorado with 3 large dogs, a cat, and a wife who is better than he deserves. They spend football season and winter on the road in a travel trailer, working remotely and trying to see as many pretty places as they can. You can follow him on Twitter @GrahamCoffeyDC. This is his 2nd trip on the ‘Blogle, and it’s a long one again.
1. What is a Georgia fan’s first thought of Auburn football at this exact moment?
I think UGA fans are looking at Auburn and saying, “You guys went all-in on football, which we understand.” What they’re also saying- “Auburn hired a guy with a bit of a colorful past and felt that was palatable in service of competing for bigger prizes. Instead of doing that they are painfully blowing leads and the offensive guru has mismanaged the QB position. That seems embarrassing.” As any good rival would be, they’re amused. At the same time, UGA people have learned first-hand about the value of elite recruiting. They’ve seen AU snatch up some big time players in the last couple cycles and they know that should lead to improvement if Hugh can get by for long enough to see the benefits of that.
2. Last week was pretty much a 4th and 31. How does it feel?
If this was pre-2021 that loss would have done some real damage. Ditto for pre-expanded CFP. There’s great frustration amongst segments of the fanbase over all sorts of different things, but they are also in the mindset of “Hey, we finally saw this team look as good as we thought they were supposed to be. I think that is more than enough consolation for most. They think they’ll see Bama again if this team continues to show the gear it found, and that part is what makes all of this feel so different than past years. There is a lot of confusion/concern over the start and the continued pattern of slow starts, but there is also a very real positivity tied to taking a lead on the road against a Top 5 team after being down 28-0 and finishing -3 turnovers (plus a safety).
3. Will Georgia be looking to avenge last week’s loss or are their tails tucked between their legs?
Bama lets the press box media come down to the field once there are 6 minutes on the clock, so I was down there at the end of the game. It was a mixture of emotions. UGA is way past moral victories, but Kirby’s whole philosophy of not playing to the score came true. That meant a lot to him and he was ripping towels off the heads of his players as they came to the locker room. I think they respect this rivalry and know they can get beat if they are nonchalant. They should be ready to play. Will they start fast? That I do not know. They haven’t done that yet.
4. Name two Dawgs that Auburn fans should look out for and why?
I think the obvious is Carson Beck at QB. He had the worst night of his career, and then somehow threw for over 400 yards anyways. What’s he look like coming out? What is his head space? All of that is going to be fascinating to watch. The second would be Smael Mondon at LB. He was fantastic in 2022 for that 15-0 UGA team and then dealt with injuries all of last year. He looked like himself for the first time in a long time last week. Freeze had success scheming UGA’s linebackers last year, and did that to Smart defenses when the two were at Ole Miss and Alabama. Can Mondon (and the other UGA linebackers) shut down Hunter and keep contain on QB run packages? That could be a bellwether of sorts.
5. Which two Tigers scare you the most and why?
The obvious is Jarquez Hunter. UGA has tons of respect for his ability and his contact balance. Kirby kinda talked about him with a special reverence at his Tuesday press conference. The other guy is probably Lambert-Smith, but you can lump in the young physically imposing WR’s too. If I was Freeze and I watched this UGA-Bama tape I would wing it up and see how these corners play the ball. Those AU receivers have the ability to make tough catches.
6. Where will each team have an advantage over the other?
I like AU’s matchup with its WR’s on the outside. They’re big and physical. UGA’s advantage is tough to discern with the pendulum swing performance last week, but I would think they will like their backs in space against AU’s edges and LB’s. Think they can be incorporated into the passing game in this one.
7. Which matchup will decide the game?
It feels like UGA’s OL vs AU’s DL. If Georgia can vary run/pass and get Beck into play-action he’s really comfortable. They never got into the play-action game last week and still mounted that comeback through the air, but if AU has to deal with both things working it will be tough.
8. What is your analysis/score prediction for the game?
I am still working on my preview, but I feel like it’s hard to pick against UGA. They should have their full attention on AU after Saturday’s loss. Auburn is good- The yard per play numbers bear that out. Freeze loves these spots too. I think the spread feels a little big for this series and AU will see this as a chance to redeem their season. It’s push/pull for a half and then Georgia pulls away is my guess… Georgia 34 – Auburn 16
9. Where will Auburn and Georgia end up this season?
I think Georgia will end up in the CFP. In this new era, the marquee games versus Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee will help them more than hurt them. They get to be in people’s minds a lot the next two months. I don’t know what to think about AU. They’ve done everything but win. If they can cutdown on turnovers they’ll settle into conference play and win some games in my opinion. I could see them beating Kentucky, Vandy and/or A&M. I actually could see them beating Mizzou as well. A bowl bid feels tough right now but not actually out of reach if Hugh can keep his locker room. No clue if he will though.
10. What are your current thoughts on Hugh Freeze?
My humble opinion… Hugh Freeze seems more worried about being right than being happy. Sometimes you’re right, and you did draw it all up and you are smarter than everyone and your QB just didn’t see the open man or made a bad decision/throw. That’s for you to know when you put your head on the pillow. That’s not for all of us to know. His team isn’t hearing a coach who believes in them or is a foxhole guy who will take bullets. It seems like he’ll roll his guys under the bus in service of telling people he’s actually doing a good job. This is a cutthroat business and it’s hard to win football games. I think the decision makers know that.
The way he’s talked about Thorne kinda feels like marrying a woman and then breaking the news that you think she’s ugly a few weeks later. I cover recruiting closely enough to know that AU is doing a great job with NIL funding. If he wanted a different QB from the portal he’d have him. His ego said he could coach Thorne up and now his ego is saying he needs to tell everyone it’s not his fault. That could end up affecting him on the recruiting trail if he’s not careful. It probably already has. We know he can coach ball, but this is a people business and your people have to really believe in you. They’re 18-22 year old kids. They are emotional creatures.
