Each week I make several bets not listed here. Some I take on the fly after watching the first quarter. Some just aren’t known to me until I get to game day. For instance, Oregon covering week 2 wasn’t really on my radar for a large bet, after a discussion with my cousin (featured last week) I decided to let $100 ride. Hit.
I have utilized various strategies to improve the payout of a risk. I have really gotten the hang of alternate spreads. It’s pretty straight forward and offered by most major sportsbooks. Week 1 was Auburn vs. Baylor moved to -9.5 from -2.5 to triple the payout. Weeks 2 & 3 we moved Vandy’s line. I have also employed a staggered betting strategy. Auburn vs. Ball State, thanks to my cousin, I played the first half yardage prop bets, I would have placed second half wagers but…well…you saw the game. No, just no. Not doing that.
Florida vs. LSU, I took LSU to cover -7.5, then sized down two alternate spread bets. The alternate spread bets should always feature an amount equal to the risk: if a bet pays +200 use half the amount and cover the same ground. Those alternate spreads did not hit, however, thanks to risk management strategy, I took a profit.
Week 3 Recap
Last week I placed a bet on LSU to cover -7.5 along with a smaller bet to cover -15.5. I walked away with a profit. Had I gone with how I felt the outcome of the wager would’ve been a loss.
The Ball State game, my cousin berated me for taking a whole game bet, he insisted that I take first half yardage props. All of those hit, I also had them bundled in a parlay. Again, had I gone with my opinion and placing a straight spread wager, I lose. I won’t go into the details of how I work the spread and betting amounts here, if you would like to know, come on over to the War Blogle discord and I’ll break it down in agonizing detail.
Currently I sit at 21-7 on the year with $5,020.00 in profit. Each week this season I have wagered around $1,000. It’s early in the year and I don’t like betting before week 4. We will be going full send soon enough. It’s a marathon not a sprint.
Let’s get to the picks. Lot of great storylines and matchups this week.
Early Slate (all times CST)
During my review, I noticed a more comfortable approach in the afternoon. MANY more wagers taking place in the evening. Maybe the Shiner Light, maybe playing with house money, could be talking to all my degenerate friends throughout the day. I dunno. It’s a trend, so I’m making it known.
Syracuse v. Clemson -17.5 [O/U 55.5] 11am
Dabo shuts em up this week. Don’t make it complicated, Syracuse is bad, Dabo needs his team to run it up. The spread and line are too far apart for me to risk on the Over.
Oregon State v. Oregon -35.5 [O/U 56.5] 12pm
Got burned on the Oregon over last week but I think Oregon rolls to hit the over this week. Oregon State may throw in some trash time points to help. Taking the Over. Small wager, possible bs parlay builder.
Kent State v. FSU -45.5 [O/U 55.5]
Gus bus rolls until it doesn’t. May work a two leg parlay here, the line and over are essentially holding hands here. Eiffel tower $100 on FSU
Michigan -2.5 v. Nebraska [O/U 46.5]
I am rooting for Rhule here. This game has no CFP ramifications and feature two teams just trying to take form. That being said It’s Oklahoma hate week and I want to diminish any and all things Oklahoma football including their win over a garbage Michigan team. Won’t risk much but will have something cooking on Nebraska.
Auburn v. Oklahoma -6.5 [O/U 47.5]
Auburn has already played the best offense they’ll see in the regular season. We withstood over 400 yds from Sawyer Robertson and I don’t think this game will look much different. I can see a reality in which Venables makes Arnold throw it deep and over the middle. I don’t think he’ll sit two safeties back the whole game either. We all agree there is a STRONG possibility that Hugh hasn’t shown anyone anything.
OU is coming into the game pretty banged up. Auburn’s defensive line should be able to get pressure with 4. I believe the spread is predicated on the Michigan win. I’m going to take the over, $500. I will then stagger into the alternate lines. Auburn to win +195 $250, Auburn to cover -5.5 @ +310 $100. If Auburn loses and we hit the over I’ll take a profit. If Auburn loses and the over doesn’t hit let’s hope I have enough on paper to walk away from Week 3 with a shirt.
Tulane v. Ole Miss -12.5 [O/U 61.5]
Classic trap game setup here coming off a big win with LSU at home next week. Lane should be able to cover this one. If they can drop 41 on Arkansas they should be able to handle Tulane.
Temple v. Georgia Tech -23.5 [O/U 51.5]
Everyone is running it up on Temple. Why not Georgia Tech? I’ll take them to cover.
Night Games
I have played a little looser with my wagers on the night slate given my success during the day. Size and risk greatly depend on the earlier games.
South Carolina v. Missouri -9.5 [O/U 48.5] 6pm
I like the odds here with SCar +285 if Sellers can go. Mizzou has faced Central Arkansas, Kansas, & the Cajuns, in no way does that justify a top 25 ranking right now. Watching the first drive. If Sellers looks good I’ll bet a reduced size for SCar to win.
Illinois v. Indiana -5.5 [o/u 52.5] 6:30
I hate it that this game won’t get the hype it deserves. Cignetti is COOKING in Bloomington & everyone is sleeping on Bielema in Illinois. May not be the SEC but this game is just as important to the rankings and CFP picture as Auburn v. Oklahoma. Illinois is currently ranked 10 places higher than Cignetti’s Hoosiers. This is a Pavia level of disrespect. The betting volume at Fanduel is 79% on Illinois. I learned last year not to bet against Cignetti esp as a 2:1 favorite at home. Indiana to cover.
Florida v. Miami -7.5 [O/U 51.5] 6:30
Miami to cover, all day everyday. Possibly my largest wager of the day. Miami is for real.
Heisman Props
I think the Heisman landscape is clear enough for us to pick a few front runners. I tend to think the Heisman will go to the most TDs/Offensive production this year. Here’s my betslip, feel free to hit me up on X @CajunBarner with a case for another QB. Be real, it’ll be a QB. Side note…Orlando Pace should’ve won it in 1997, he was the most dominant player in college football that year. Go watch the tape.
Carson Beck (Miami) +750
Dante Moore (Oregon) +1300
Marcel Reed (TxAM) +1400
Jackson Arnold (Auburn) +2500
Sawyer Robinson (Baylor) +3300
