Betting in AFL is massively popular these days, and it’s not hard to see why. The Australian Football League, also known as the AFL, is the premier professional Australian rules football association. The AFL is a national competition comprising 18 teams from across the country, with millions of fans in Australia, and follows all over America, Europe, and Asia.
Aussie rules football is a unique sport, but it is high-flying, hard-hitting, fast-paced, and is the ultimate showcase of athletic ability and talent. The AFL season starts in March and runs till October, and if you’re betting in sports, it’s an amazing game. There are numerous betting markets for AFL for every match during the season, while punters can bet on different match outcomes and individual player performances.
Placing a bet casually before an AFL match has the potential to reward you big time, but if you want to make money from AFL betting consistently, you must know and calculate the latest AFL odds. Apart from that, you must have a narrow focus and choose a niche within the game. If you’re looking to win big in AFL betting, here are some of the best strategies you can implement to improve your chances.
Live betting on AFL matches is one of the best ways to win big, but it is still not common, mainly because of online restrictions. Most punters don’t like calling and placing bets during a match, but they end up missing out on the big bucks this way. The volatility of live betting is the best part because punters have plenty of opportunity during the match.
For instance, if the team you bet on started at $2.20 and conceded two goals in the match, their price rose to $2.40. Do you have the confidence and historical data to know that the market has overvalued the goals, and should you bet on this better price? Several strategies can be applied uniquely to live betting, and most of them are ignored because no one wants to pick up the phone and call.
The premiership market presents an excellent opportunity for AFL punters, and you can look at historical data as proof. In 2016, the top two out of the four teams were trading at $70 or more. The finals are volatile, and the fluctuations throughout the season are greater than you imagine. However, you’re not limited to the premiership market because if you understand the draw and have a better rating system, you can make informed assumptions about the final ladder.
In addition, several predictive models show you the relationship between the season’s opening games and how you can forecast predictions for the ladder. You can lay well-respected teams that have started the season poorly if you know that information.
One event you should keep an eye on is the Brownlow. The volume of transactions is mind-blowing, especially in the last week, with prop and team markets available. You can create your Brownlow leaderboard if you watch a lot of football.
All you need is some skill with Excel, and there are several websites from where you can compare. Search for “Brownlow Leaderboard” on Google, and you can view all the stats of games you have missed. The best part is that the Brownlow markets are easy to understand, and you place live bets on Brownlow Medal night.
Early Bird Gets the Odds
When there is a lot of liquidity, there is a good chance of an event occurring in the game. If you graph the starting price along with the results, they will be linear. That means if a team starts at $3 when the ball bounces, it will likely win 1-in-3 games. It’s amazing how the money’s weight on both sides can determine the true odds.
That’s what makes it hard to succeed as a punter in AFL, as you place most of your bets before the game begins. The best opportunities present themselves when the markets are being set. For example, a team that’s $1.70 on Friday night may have been trading above $2 on Thursday. Every week there is around a 10% to 30% fluctuation on AFL games, which tells you how volatile it is, making it harder to find existing opportunities to win in the market.
First Goal Scorer
The favorite market of many corporate bookmakers for AFL games is the first goalscorer, which has staggering numbers in terms of profit margins and popularity. You can create a database and find people who have kicked first goals more times than anyone to find their odds.
For instance, you may be surprised to learn that Jack Riewoldt was one player who managed to kick the first goal of the game more times than anyone and had $8 to $9 odds.
One of the best ways to get bigger odds is margin betting, which has multiple angles. For instance, recreational gamblers tend to be predictable in what they prefer and will place bets on teams with odds of 1-39 or 40+, depending on the line. The overwhelming favourite will attract several 40+ bets, and a close betting game will be popular with punters who are 1-24 or 1-39.
If you choose to back 1-24, it can be valuable, especially if you can predict whether inclement weather might interrupt the game. Another option that is overlooked is betting on the draw. The last AFL match that ended in a draw was back in 2015, in round 21. That was more than 350 matches ago, but the options for draws in the margin markets are currently trading between 50/1 to 67/1.
The AFL betting market tends to reward expertise. Therefore, it would be in your best interests to pick a niche you’re familiar with within the AFL and hone your skills. You can start with a spreadsheet and build your database over time.
Have records for all your bets and determine what strategy is working and isn’t living up to expectations. You will improve as time passes and can then drop your losing habits and stake more money on AFL betting when you have perfected your strategies.