Not much to talk about this week other than coaching and officiating. Two things, that just keep happening.
There’s about to be a seismic shift in the coaching landscape and I’d rather not get into all that. I don’t really mess around with Kalshi, I hear you can place any kind of bet over there. Enjoy.
Gambling on college football, which certainly has an “influence” from vegas, is risky. Storylines hyped by the 24/7 media machine, eveyr media outlet now covering the gambling angles…it’s our favorite soap opera. So anytime we can identify which side has unusual volume or the line makes a swing, we need to take serious note of that particular set of data. Can’t rig a blow out, buuuut the overall makeup and flow of the game can certainly be altered.
I have enough data in front of me, thanks to some friends over in the Unusual Whales discord, to be mathematically certain this is happening. It has been happening for several seasons in a row. This ain’t new. I’ve been betting this angle for a long long time. This year they aren’t trying very hard to hide it. Maybe we see it because it’s happening to us? Either way let’s make money on it. However, speaking publicly about such topics is verboten. As I am not suicidal, and do not possess evidence that will lead to the arrest and conviction of a Clinton, we will leave all of that for another time or we can rant over on the discord.
Week 7 Recap
Killed it again. We upped a few of the wagers this week to combat my overbetting and still scratch the itch
- Ohio State is the best team in college football. They covered, again.
- Bama: I’m not mad. Small wager. Bama lost so I’m happy. We don’t know which Bama will show up anyway
- Mizzou: do stuff with Math kids. You can place a bet on one team with odds, counter that bet at a range which suits your eye and hit. I just did it. Again. This is a numbers game. See table above
- FSU: Gusbus keeps on keepin on. Remember it’s playing with fire, just Gussin gets you from time to time. I placed a bet that involved the FSU defense. Not doing that again.
- Indiana: Locked up Cig. Good move. He’s building something and has deep roots in Indiana.
- Tennessee: Sorta like a fat Gusbus that’s just unlikeable. Just don’t know. Also that guy won a Heisman?
- Texas A&M: Solid team. Great defense. Title contender. Keep riding them.
- Auburn: I took them on odds. yep.
- Georgia: I hedged the Auburn bet. Should’ve gone bigger but I couldn’t bet on the storyline and look at my self in the mirror. Kirby and the SEC brand will be protected at all costs. The SEC does NOT have guaranteed spots into the CFP. Bet your ass Sank is sitting guerilla in that control room.
Week 8
Georgia Tech v. Duke -1.5 [O/U 60.5] 11:00am
I’m all Georgia Tech here. This game smells to high heaven. My neighbor is saying put money on Duke. He dropped 10k on it. He has a strong conviction there. I think he’s wrong and they’re trying to get volume in on Duke. I’m taking Georgia Tech +102 Moneyline.
LSU v. Vanderbilt -2.5 [O/U 48.5] 11:00am
Vandy. Pavia. Under. Big bet looming. Alternate spread doesn’t jump to +200 on Vandy until -8.5. Think I’ll stick to the money line.
Oklahoma -5.5 v. South Carolina [O/U 43.5] 11:45am
The over is screaming at me on this one. I like Oklahoma to bounce back and cover here. This feels too good to be true but I’m taking the bait.
Ole Miss v. Georgia -7.5 [O/U 54.5] 2:30 pm
Lane has really let me down this year. Fanduel had Ole Miss +235 on the moneyline, +400 to cover -6.5 … that’s too good to pass up. Ole Miss is better than Auburn, who should’ve beaten Georgia last week. Venue matters. Georgia has won two they shouldn’t have. Lane won’t make those mistakes. Florida is getting a great coach and he will be missed dearly *cough hated* in Oxford.
Ohio State -25.5 v. Wisconsin [O/U 41.5] 2:30 pm
Just take the over. Won’t mess us up if Wisconsin scores some trash points to break up the cover. Over.
Michigan State v. Indiana -27.5 [O/U 51.5] 2:30 pm
Just take the over. Too many points once again to mess with a cover.
Mississippi State v. Florida -9.5 [O/U 50.5] 3:15 pm
The over is under consideration. Definitely going to have money on Cowbells to cover. Moneyline paying +270 on Miss St. to win, a cover of -6.5 pays +500. If Mississippi State comes out and does what I think they’re gonna do…I’m going to make a lot of money. The payouts offered allow for a hedge bet on Florida. Play it smart and you just can’t walk away with a serious loss.
Oregon -17.5 v. Rutgers [O/U 59.5] 5:30 pm
I’m only mentioning this for a small wager. I won’t touch it but a risk on the over could be worth it in a parlay.
Tennessee v. Alabama -8.5 [O/U 58.5] 6:30 pm
Which Tennessee shows up? No idea. Over is high, but it should be close to track meet. Bama is -300 on Moneyline. Tennessee to cover -6.5 is +430. May stick with Tennessee to keep it close.
Mizzou -1.5 v. Auburn [O/U 43.5] 6:45 pm
Sank can’t come at us three in a row. Just can’t. Gotta give us something here. I like Auburn at home. A lot. Drink has a good squad, facts. But Auburn’s defense is top tier, I think we take this one. Hugh’s back is to the wall…I know I have a rule about avoiding coaches in a must win…I don’t think Hugh’s job is in jeopardy. For those of you psychos on X…If you do??? Who is the next hire? Who? Is there an owl in here? If the sugar daddies are paying this kind of money to fire someone (and their staff)…possibly lose all the recruits…that were just paid and did not sign a contract to stay at Auburn…WHO IS NEXT? He ain’t getting fired. Y’all need to chill c’mon man. Fo reals. Betting Auburn +102Â moneyline. War Damn.
