This is Blogle here. This guy named ChucknSports claims he knows how to, uh, correctly predict games for financial reasons. Gambling is all over sports now, so we need a gambling guy. That’s Chucknsports. Welcome him, if you want.
Vegas is smart. Really, really smart. Ever watch a game a wonder how they are always so close on so many lines? Well, in short, from the opening line to the closing line, Vegas constantly balances the books based on public and sharp action. Typically, the best value can be found by getting in early on the opening lines. It’s more complicated than that, but we will save a deep dive on Vegas for another day. However, for the everyday degenerate gambler, we are trying to find value in the closing line.
For purposes of “War Spread Eagle,” I want to review how the lines for Auburn Tiger football games have moved over the course of the week and analyze the final consensus line. For this process, we will examine some “quick hits” on our opponents as well as investigate where the Tigers currently stand in the season. Based on this high-level review, we can determine if we are comfortable with the consensus line, and we can determine whether there’s an indicator that could give us a lean.
Game 1: Akron Zips – 9/4 Auburn, AL; Jordan-Hare Stadium
Opening Line: AU -35.5
Current Line/Total: AU -37, 55.5
Akron quick hits:
- Head Coach – 3rd year HC Tom Arth is off to a rough start at Akron (1-17 record; 3-15 ATS).
- Arth supplanted Terry Bowden (WDE) at the end of the 2018 season. Bowden went 35 – 52 during his 7-year tenure. So far, wouldn’t exactly call Arth an upgrade.
- They might have the worst mascot in football. The “Zips” are the result of a campus-wide contest over 90 years ago to choose a nickname for the University’s athletic teams. The winning student suggested “Zippers,” which was apparently the name of a popular rubber overshoe at the time. Thus, was born the “Zips.” That spots their opponents at least 2 touchdowns per game.
Auburn quick hits:
- Head Coach – 1st year HC Bryan Harsin ushers in a new era on the Plains. During his 7 years as head coach for Boise State, Harsin went 69-19.
- In their last 20 games, Boise and Harsin went 16-4 (10-10 ATS)
- Auburn is coming off a 6-4 (COVID) season and returns superstar Tank Bigsby and Heisman hopeful Bo Nix.
- The transfer portal has worked wonders for Auburn, and the Tigers should have one of the best defenses and rushing attacks in the SEC.
The results are in…
For a cupcake game like this, we didn’t expect to see much movement in the line. Arth and the Zips are consistent. Consistently horrendous at playing football, that is. It’s an exciting chance for the Zips to enjoy a big-time college football environment, but an excruciatingly long night awaits.
A blowout is expected, and a blowout is what you will get.
Even when Auburn moves on to 2nd and 3rd stringers, Akron will fail to keep up with the talent on the field. The only opponent here is the game clock. It’s tough to justify any type of action on such a game, but the quick hits back up Auburn -37. That’s the lean. War Damn Eagle.
