All of that trash talking that UCF is doing will end up looking pretty stupid when they are getting beat down in the Peach Bowl to the tune of 42-13 (or so). No, I didn’t just randomly pull that number from a hat … I assume that UCF will be able to score a couple of field goals and maybe hit the edge hard with that speed they are ever boasting about to score a touchdown. The problem UCF will face on Monday is a simple one: an SEC Defense.
Through all of their self-lauding and bragging, who have they played … a Power 5 School? No. Not one. Austin Peay … Come on … This is football, not hoops. In their last game, they won in overtime, but they let Memphis put up 55 on them … that’s a joke. I feel like I should stop writing right now and let this thing just write itself.
Yes, UCF, you’re fast and have the #1 scoring offense in the nation … against other small programs but now you’ll face some of the biggest, strongest young men in the country. I’m not sure if you’ve looked at the Vegas boards, UCF, but you’re not the favorites here, you’re already up to 10-point underdogs at many spots. Make sure to check out Sportsbetting.ag for the latest odds.
There is another huge caveat. This is undoubtedly the biggest game in UCF football history and for Auburn, it’s just another day out on the gridiron. From the press statements, I have to believe that the Tigers really hold an advantage here. It is clear that UCF is already all caught up in the emotion of it all while Auburn is remaining calm and poised; staying focused on the task at hand.
Statistical Matchup
Now comes the time to throw a bunch of meaningless stats at you (meaningless because the level of competition these two teams faced all season are on wholly different levels.)
Scoring – UCF puts up 49.42 points per game; Auburn puts up 34.38
Passing –UCF averages 339.25 passing yards per game; Auburn averages 225.85 passing yards per game
Rushing –UCF averages 200.92 on the ground; Auburn averages 2287.15
Yards per Play –UCF averages 7.61 yyp; Auburn averages 6.30
Play Count –UCF runs 71 plays per game; Auburn 72.08
Defense –UCF allows 25.17 points per game; Auburn allows 17.31
Passing –UCF allows 262.83 passing yards per game; Auburn allows 183.00
Rushing –UCF allows 156.7 yards on the ground; Auburn allows 134.62
Play Count –UCF is on field for 73.50 plays; Auburn is on field for 68.15
Yards per Play –UCF allows 5.83 ypp; Auburn Allows 4.66 ypp
Head-to-head –Auburn has smashed UCF all of the three times they have played each other.
Predictive Power Rankings
Auburn is rated as the #8 team overall in the country through my favorite rankings algorithms, Central Florida is Ranked #14. Now when you take all of UCF’s data and stack it against top-25 teams in the predictive algorithms you get UCF rated way back at #53. Meanwhile, Auburn ranks #7 in both top-10 and 11-25. The same math has Auburn’s win projection over the UCF Knights at 72.7 percent. That feels about right and I will take those odds on any given Monday.
Really, all Auburn has to do is stay on the field and smash this soft, small defense right in the gut all day long. Nothing cute … just march the ball from end zone to end zone while inflicting pain the entire time. Gut-punch the pride and confidence right out of UCF.
The point-spread is hovering around 10, though I am calling for 20-point Auburn victory, as losing in embarrassing fashion is the most common cosmic justice doled out to trash-talkers.
