I’ve written the reaction blog to the OU game five maybe 8 times in my head. I get a little bit too angry at the injustice wrought upon us for the sake of the SEC narrative so let’s just go do the damn thang.
Y’all think it’s just happenstance we missed playing for the Natty in ’04? Coinky-dink we got TV jailed in ’93 after Bama won the Ship in ’92…then we go undefeated? That Ole’ Stallings didn’t know what Pat Dye (the then Coach and Athletic director) was cooking? They took out Pat Dye! We aren’t mad enough. The Auburn DB, name redacted, went in with a wire on for what? Did it for free? Don’t be naive. This is a cutthroat business worthy of any Puzo/Scorsese film. I’ll chill on all this once Sank lets us into the nerve center. Assuring us he’s not sitting gorilla behind the curtain.
Only the SEC Conference Champ is guaranteed a spot in the CFP. Leaving the at large pool of seven bids on the table. Sank had to make a business decision. I don’t think anyone from the SEC will be able to cry conference cannibalism to the Committee sitting 8-4. The ramifications of Auburn beating OU…lots of dominoes falling. What does it say about Michigan? Auburn could very well lose multiple games this year, not a good look. The important takeaway is that while important, it’s not all about wins and losses. It what the games look like and what a professional public relations firm can spin. Narrative control. Can the investments made to gin up banter on platforms and engagement realize a return on investment.
Week 4 Picks Recap
In previous posts I have mentioned I do not like betting prior to Week 4. We’re doing alright. Finally getting a feel for teams and their comparative strength. So much football it’s hard to make time to view enough game tape to warrant an opinion. As for the gambling my record speaks for itself. Pretty much been nailing it. The bankroll could be higher. Had to re-learn some lessons. As in not betting on a coach in a “must-win” situation. There’s a reason it’s must win and it isn’t good *Cough DABO*. Definitely don’t do it more than once. I’ve done it twice. If a team is rolling just ride them ’til the don’t. No big deal, we win and lose here, it’s the size that matters. Speaking of size, I’m still getting a feel for how to place the money on each team. I reached out to my gambling mentor, he told me that I am probably over betting. Best course of action is to “just sit down…with your the pen and paper, make your list, check injuries, watch some tape, see how it sets up, write the sentiment down and why, then sleep on I, go play with your kids. no stress. come back and work the list down to 5. stick with that. you’re doin great kid”.
Wonder if I’m the best to pick games on this site so far. I’m holding the best betting record among all of my degenerate friends. Most of these games the blog has really helped out bc I wouldn’t look at em twice if I wasn’t trying to cover ground for someone who may care. I dunno if that will hold up in the coming weeks. I may get selfish. See what happens.
Week 5
The early afternoon slate is loaded. I envy those of you with multi-cast. ESPN took it away from us, sold it to AppleTV. To whomever approved that: I hope you stub your toe every morning, always red lights in the morning, you get mustard instead of ketchup, all of your hotel rooms are next to the elevators, the remote control is just slightly out of reach after you sit down. Enjoy.
FSU -6.5 v. Virginia [O/U 59.5] Friday Night
The Gusbus remains undefeated against the spread and the over in 2025. Does he care? Not a bit. Does he wanna smash people cause Gus go fast? Yep. Virginia Double Dribbled. A two leg parlay on the lines given here pays +208. I’ll probably steer away from the parlay, maybe add another leg from a different game and see what happens. I like FSU to cover.
Indiana -7.5 v. Iowa [O/U 47.5] 2:30pm
Mama there go that man again. This could also hit both the spread and the over. Iowa has been a powerhouse defensively for years, not a single Iowa game has hit the over yet. A bet on Indiana to cover doesn’t pay +200 until -16.5. That’s too many points for me. I’ll take Indiana to cover, watch the alternate lines.
Ohio State -8.5 v. Washington [O/U 52.5] 2:30pm
Ohio State should handle Washington by 10. They’re cemented in their identity and what they wanna do on the field. Data showing Ohio State has not been strong on the over this year, steer clear of that. Taking Ohio State to cover.
LSU v. Ole Miss -1.5 [O/U 54.5] 2:30pm
Would be more fun at night, Lane said take the over. I watched the ESPN E60 doc, really good. You should watch it. Lane is one of a few coaches who lets us know he’s aware of the lines. I feel like I can count on Lane hitting the over when he can. I’ll have to act like I want LSU to win because of my wife and cousin. I don’t care who wins. My daughter will change from the Auburn cheerleader to the LSU cheerleader, neighbors will come over. Inflatable big screen, hopefully an Auburn win. This is supposed to be fun so let’s take the over after we watch the first few minutes. IF I go in here, it’s gonna be big, probably $2500.
Auburn v. Texas A&M -6.5 [O/U 52.5] 2:30pm
Not looking good for Auburn. Elko off a bye week. Ags are focused & healed up after a huge win in South Bend. Mississippi State is up next for the Ags. Slim to none chance they’re looking past us. A&M QB looks excellent. All things I said about OU. THE CATCH I just think we’re better than they are. We have gotten zero respect this year. It’s time for Auburn to enter into our villain arch. If the SEC wants a heel let’s f’ing give them one. I hope Hugh puts on the black visor and runs it up on them to prove a point. IDGAF WAR DAMN EAGLE! I’m here for life. I’m going to stagger strategy with enough on A&M to hedge via cover because I’m good at Math not because I don’t believe. Auburn to win by -9.5 is paying +470. Check your alternate lines. My approach on Auburn is to pragmatically examine where the lines would be (should be) had Auburn walked out of Norman winning 28-14 or 31-10. If you’ve never made a trip to Kyle Field you should. It’s awesome. My second favorite stop in the SEC, second only to Auburn.
Oregon v. Penn State -3.5 [O/U 52.5]Â
Vegas is telling their story on the moneyline with PSU -166 Oregon +138. Penn State is hasn’t played anyone, neither has Oregon. They’ve both won all games in the manner expected. I don’t think Penn State has even had to open the playbook yet. Lanning is out here getting people fired, making sure they don’t cover. According to the tape I’ve seen I’m not sure Oregon can survive a shootout with their defense. Oregon sure as hell won’t be able to run the ball. Allar hasn’t done much but he hasn’t been asked either. Seriously tempted to take the under along with the PSU defense at home.
Alabama v. Georgia -2.5 [O/U 53.5]
Will this look like the Tennessee game? Bama isn’t the same team that got whooped by the Gusbus. They have made the changes necessary to keep it competitive. I just gotta think Bama is somewhat close to Tennessee at least talent wise. I am strongly in favor of their demise. Georgia was just hanging out in that Tennessee game…great teams win when they play bad. Smart doesn’t really play bad two games in a row. I think Georgia can cover the small spread here. Maybe a little too small trying to give Bama some action. We are going to have to watch for familiar zebra faces per the OU game in this one. Full size, Georgia to cover -2.5.
