No intro, last week wasn’t my best. It happens. Let’s make things right in Week 3. To do so, I’ve added my cousin. Just go with it.
Florida v LSU (-7.5 O/U 48.5)
CB: Having attended every LSU v. Auburn matchup in the 90s I have a particular hatred and respect for the actual Death Valley. The only two positive memories I have are shaking car keys during the 3rd quarter of the Cigar Game & the recent Garth Brooks concert. Negative memories include my younger brother (then 7) being struck by a full stadium cup thrown blindly into the Auburn seating, obscenities yelled at me when I was in elementary school (most of them I didn’t understand), and some psycho trying to pour a dip spitter on my Bo Jackson jersey in the stadium. To reinforce the aura of LSU at night I am bringing in my cousin, LSU alum, former Tubs era Auburn fan, and ball knower.
KL: There are a few home games each year where Tiger Stadium really lives up to its reputation. Without fail, when these jort wearing turds come to town the stadium is alive. I can guarantee, if you give 100,000 coonasses a 6:30pm kickoff for a rivalry game those cooyans will be smashed. The stadium WILL be packed, and it WILL be deafening.The band may not play Neck anymore, but us Cajuns are musical people and we will scream STTDB over anything with a similar rhythm.The overall series may be tied 34-34-3 all time, but let’s look at some recent history. LSU is 7-3 in the last 10 years and 6-1 against UF in the last 7 games in Tiger Stadium with an average win margin of just over 12 points at home.
CB: I’m thinking LSU destroys a down UF team by at least two touchdowns. Jimbo and Lane are on the phone with their agents about the opening by the end of the night. Week 1 I teased the line on Auburn to -9.5 tripling my payout. This isn’t something we do weekly but when the opportunity arises I take it. I will be staggering my bets across multiple spreads: -7.5 -105, -15.5 +200, and -19.5 +290.
KL: Hilariously, UF is coming off a disappointing (and beautiful) loss to a little brother school in state. They will be full of piss and vinegar this week trying to cool down what is likely the hottest seat in CFB. After a disappointing win in Tiger Stadium, where the team and coaches left the field like they lost the game, I doubt the Tigers will come into this game unfocused. Lagway, the supposed savior of the program, has looked mediocre so far this year and the offensive line for the gators has allowed 18 TFLs between LIU and USF. For the Tigers, the offense is uber talented but has looked a little out of sync at times. However, this LSU defense has me feeling like it’s the 2010s again. I like the under here and the Tigers to cover the spread. This feels like 27-17 game and will be the start of the Gator fans watching Mullen at UNLV while they reminisce about better times. It sucks to be a Florida Gator. Disclaimer: Weird stuff happens in this game a lot.
Vanderbilt v. South Carolina -5.5 (O/U 48.5)
CB: One of the few, maybe the only, matchup in which we have a common opponent as a reference. Vandy has a top 10 resume, out gained VT by over 300yds in the 2nd half, and is somehow still disrespected. Diego Pavia exists and there is no way I’m betting against him when he’s being disrespected on this level. This is more of a bet on Clark Lea/Pavia than it is a bet against Shane Beamer. I’m taking Vandy to win outright at +180, possibly stacking a bet on Vandy to cover -5.5 +285. The odds are in our favor here and I don’t think it’s an upset.
KL: I have to agree here, don’t bet against Pavia. Since he’s taken over as the starter, Vandy is 10-4 ATS. Clark Lea has taken this man from pissing in lockers to leaving the guest locker room immaculate after going pure belt to a$$ against the competition. I may take the money line on Vandy depending on movement. Sellers big play ability will make sure my butthole is thoroughly clenched until the clock hits 00:00. Give me Vandy to cover the spread.
Georgia -3.5 v. Tennessee (O/U 49.5)
KL: In college football’s first ever QB trade, it seems Tennessee has lopsidedly won this trade with Joey Aguilar. So far, the QB is 38/51 for 535 yards and 5 TDs. Oh wait, that was Nico’s stats last year through the first 2 games playing overmatched opponents and he ended up being more mid than the stuff I smoked freshman year. Well, let’s look at Joey, 39/59 for 535 yards and 5 TDs…makes you think. As for UGA they killed the defending Sun Belt champ, but Charles Huff dipped out for Southern Miss in the off season and took half the roster with him. UGA then proceeded to sleepwalk through Austin Peay. I don’t feel like there’s smart money anywhere around this game and I’ll be weak and abstain from this one pregame, but will be betting something live.
CB: Is Georgia just better than Tennessee? I think position by position UGA is probably as good or better all the way down the roster. If you like UT just go ahead and hit the alt spreads and tease it up. I’m taking UGA to wake up and cover with appropriate size for the risk. I’m going to tail KL and hit the live lines mid-game.
South Florida v. Miami -17.5 (O/U 56.5)
CB: To be clear, I am NOT in on the USF hype. A week 1 win over a garbage UF team & Jeanty-less Boise just doesn’t do it for me. Miami sets up more than a few profitable matchups in the ACC this year. We should get all the tape in we can this week before they face off against the Gus Bus next week. I have learned from my mistake underestimating Beck thus far. Hopefully they beat USF so bad we won’t have to hear about a G5 school in the playoff ever again. Miami to cover.
KL: Gulag vs Convicts may be one of the games I’m most excited for this weekend. USF has the chance to fully legitimize themselves this weekend, and become a huge favorite to be the G5 rep in the CFP. I may still be high on the afterglow of watching Billy and the Gators crap all over themselves in The Swamp, but I’m all aboard Trans-Siberian Express with Alex Golesh and this Russian Mafia of a defense. USF’s trench play absolutely bullied both teams they’ve faced. I like the Bulls to cover here, 17.5 is a lot of points to cover for the Hurricanes and I think the Bulls defense is for real. If the Moscow man can lead USF to win a here, I won’t be shocked if there is an increase of Igors and Ivans being born in Tampa.
We both want to reiterate that this game is required viewing.
Texas A&M v. Notre Dame -6.5 (O/U 49.5)Â
CB: I really don’t like Notre Dame. I haven’t seen enough from the Notre Dame to think they can beat the Aggies at Kyle Field. South Bend is another matter, especially considering ND is coming off a bye. I don’t think ND quite has the QB play yet, but they do have a defense and running backs. With TAMU sitting at +205 it’s all risk/reward for me. The spread doesn’t seem to match the line here, looks off. ND moneyline is sitting at -255 & TAMU +205, only a 6.5 spread…spider senses tingling. I’m taking the Aggies to win a close one on the road sized down thanks to the payout fully aware Vegas could be up to something. If TAMU wasn’t paying 2:1 I don’t think I’d take it. Referee fuckery will certainly be afoot to keep ND in the playoff picture. Full send on the Under.
KL: The worst thing about this game is that someone gets to have a W at the end of it. That being said, I just don’t see the Ags winning at ND. Watching CJ Carr and this Irish offense physically hurt my eyes against Miami, this game is a MUST win for the Irish. Do not get it twisted, a loss here will likely kill the media darling’s playoff hopes entirely as they won’t get another chance to make a statement this season. In my unqualified opinion, the Aggies are a lot like Tennessee right now, you can’t make a reasonable opinion about them torching over matched opponents. Coming off a bye week I expect Freeman to have his guys fully prepared for the Ags. The Irish will do everything they can here to contain Reed in the pocket and force him to beat them through the air and I just don’t see that happening. I expect the Aggies to be full-on 8-4 mode in the fourth quarter and bungle the game away. I’m not touching this spread, but I do like the under here and I do expect the Irish to send TAMU home on the bedazzled saddle they rode in on. Keep the cheerleaders away from Freeman.
Oregon -27.5 v. Northwestern (O/U 48.5)
CB: After all the trash talking last week and disemboweling Mike Gundy, a P5 opponent, in front of his family Oregon goes on the weekly Over list. If they’re playing I’m taking the over. What’s really crazy is Lanning could’ve scored more. Northwestern is probably worse than Oklahoma State. Don’t mess with the spread just put more money into the over.
KL: Oregon go smash. Northwestern make sad cat noises. I would normally never touch this spread but hit the spread and the over in what would likely be considered criminal off of the football field.
South Alabama v Auburn  -24.5 (O/U 58.5)
CB: This is Freeze’s last chance to get Arnold confident in the passing game before we run the gauntlet. I’m taking Auburn to cover & the over again this week. Coleman & Singleton will get a lot of looks. I’m hoping for an air show. Possible first half SGP on the Over Passing Yards and Under on USA rushing yards.
KL: While South Alabama did make a solid late game surge to keep the game close against Tulane, they have been abysmal against the run allowing 211 yards per game on the ground in their first two showings. However, I do expect Freeze to want Arnold to push the ball down the field more in the first half. If that doesn’t click the score could be closer than you would like going into half time. I also think Major Applewhite’s offense is going to get its chances at times too. I like the over here, but I think there’s too much risk of a back door cover once Auburn takes their foot off the gas. If Arnold is hitting those deep balls early in the game, hop on the spread live.
Random parlay thoughts
USA v Auburn SGP Prop bets: Auburn over first half Passing Yds, Auburn over rushing yards game, USA under rushing yards game.
Texas Tech v Oregon State over 62.5
Oklahoma to cover -23.5 v Temple
Clemson -154 to win v Georgia Tech
Michigan v Central Michigan over 41.5
Texas v UTEP over 51.5 (Texas -41.5 so why not take the over)
Arkansas +215 to beat Ole Miss (Lane calls his agent about the UF job)
Ohio State -31.5 to cover vs Ohio. The over is also worth a look here.
