Blogle here. Welcome @CajunBarner to Blogle Bets. According to him, he is a wholly dedicated family man. Sometimes an oil & gas landman, sometimes a day trader, sometimes just putting out the vibe. Witness to UFO phenomena on 4 separate occasions, he has died in an ambulance, and been a featured background actor in several forgettable films. When the schedule allows, he can be found honing his long range precision rifle skill set on the 1000 yard firing line. So yeah, he probably knows who to pick if you do those types of things.
A wise man once told me parlays are for suckers. I only bet spreads & money lines. The goal is to compound over the course of the season, sizing the wager appropriate to the level of risk. We will visit & revisit this throughout the season. In years past I have not placed a bet prior to Week 4. There simply isn’t enough data early in the season to determine strength relative to the field.
Will I bet several thousand this weekend, YES. Will I place most of it on Texas v Ohio State, NO. I may not bet the Texas game at all. The main thang is to not blow our stack before Week 4. That’s when we can really make some moves that will allow us to start planning expensive trips. So here’s my shot at Week 1. Thesis for the week is defense travels. It takes a week or three for an offense to hit all cylinders. We should also note which teams possess the talent to win an opening week track meet. *Cough it’s Auburn* Also never bet on Brian Kelly to win in Week 1. Enjoy and please gamble responsibly.
Auburn (-128) over Baylor
I will take Auburn by a FG over Baylor all day everyday. The only reason this game is big is because of all the expectations placed on Auburn. Hugh knows what’s at stake here, trust the coach. I am expecting to see a lot of short to intermediate passing to open up the RPO. Hugh is at his best when he’s got a QB who can throw on the run. If you want to take the spread that’s on you. I think Vegas has it wrong, so I teased it to -9.5 for a better payout.
Notre Dame (-135) over Miami
Defense travels and the Irish have more of it than Miami. Both teams are dealing with big losses in offensive production. Yes I am aware who Miami has under center and I don’t care. If he could play, UGA wouldn’t have let him roll out. I am leaning towards a slugfest and the under. Given the -135 here I don’t see an advantage taking anything but the spread on this one. I’m taking Notre Dame money line.
Texas v. Ohio State
I really have no idea here. Arch this Arch that…who cares, he’s probably gonna ball out. BUT both moneyline and spread are presenting as toss ups. It’s in Columbus, I’ve been, HELLUVA tailgate folks, they know what they’re doing. The atmosphere is LSU without good food. With respect to the Midwestern dominance, this ain’t anything new to the Longhorns. Worth nothing Judkins returns and is my X factor given the new QB. My gut is saying take Arch & Texas. Mostly because I just don’t think Ryan Day can win two big games in a row. I’m taking Texas at +102 appropriately sized for the risk.
Clemson (-182) over LSU
I see the spreads, the lines, Clemson making sure the Houston transfer is sitting the first half. Good move Dabo. LSU does makes a compelling case but we don’t do dumb shit with our money outside of late season firearm purchases. Just bet against Brian Kelly week 1. Don’t overthink it. It’s in Clemson, they’re on an up year talent wise, Dabo won nattys during the Saban/Red Elephant Club era. BK can’t win an opener until he does. I’m betting against LSU and the worst fanbase in the SEC.
LOCK IT UP
Louisiana-Lafayette (-11.5) over Rice
The Ragin Cajuns are coming off a 10 win season, now featuring a blue-chip transfer QB under center in Walker Howard. They have returning veteran defensive production in two All-Sunbelt starters Jordan Lawson & Tyree Skipper. Big win opening the newly renovated stadium Week 1. Bet it anyway you want, moneyline or spread, just bet the Cajuns. I’m taking the spread as the moneyline is a little steep. Keep your eye on the Cajuns this year. I see 10+ wins on the schedule again.
I need to bring Sun Belt football to your attention. That is the land of haves and have nots. We can really gain an edge on betting smaller conference football. I killed it last year with JMU and I’m planning on doing it again. The odds aren’t working for me this week versus Weber State but I will ride them just like I rode Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma.
